National age and coresidence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability.
Identifieur interne : 000A80 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000A79; suivant : 000A81National age and coresidence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability.
Auteurs : Albert Esteve [Espagne] ; I Aki Permanyer [Espagne] ; Diederik Boertien [Espagne] ; James W. Vaupel [Danemark]Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 1091-6490 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adulte (MeSH), Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Caractéristiques de l'habitat (MeSH), Caractéristiques familiales (MeSH), Enfant (MeSH), Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH), Facteurs âges (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (mortalité), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Internationalité (MeSH), Jeune adulte (MeSH), Nourrisson (MeSH), Nouveau-né (MeSH), Pandémies (MeSH), Pneumopathie virale (mortalité), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Sujet âgé (MeSH).
- MESH :
- mortalité : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- transmission : Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Betacoronavirus, Caractéristiques de l'habitat, Caractéristiques familiales, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs âges, Humains, Infections à coronavirus, Internationalité, Jeune adulte, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale, Sujet âgé.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Age Factors (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Child (MeSH), Child, Preschool (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (mortality), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Family Characteristics (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Infant (MeSH), Infant, Newborn (MeSH), Internationality (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (mortality), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Residence Characteristics (MeSH), Young Adult (MeSH).
- MESH :
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Betacoronavirus, Child, Child, Preschool, Family Characteristics, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Internationality, Middle Aged, Pandemics, Residence Characteristics, Young Adult.
Abstract
Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and coresidence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries' populations to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to COVID-related deaths in general. The coresidence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries' vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of COVID-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational coresidence, are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of COVID-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational coresidence, such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and intergenerational households, such as Bangladesh.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008764117
PubMed: 32576696
PubMed Central: PMC7368248
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to COVID-related deaths in general. The coresidence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries' vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of COVID-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational coresidence, are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of COVID-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational coresidence, such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and intergenerational households, such as Bangladesh.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32576696</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>22</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>30</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1091-6490</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>117</Volume><Issue>28</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>14</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>National age and coresidence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>16118-16120</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1073/pnas.2008764117</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and coresidence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries' populations to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to COVID-related deaths in general. The coresidence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries' vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of COVID-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational coresidence, are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of COVID-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational coresidence, such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and intergenerational households, such as Bangladesh.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Esteve</LastName><ForeName>Albert</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-9916-386X</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Demographic Studies, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain; aesteve@ced.uab.es.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Geography Department, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Permanyer</LastName><ForeName>Iñaki</ForeName><Initials>I</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-7051-5144</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Demographic Studies, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Boertien</LastName><ForeName>Diederik</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-4105-8001</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Demographic Studies, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vaupel</LastName><ForeName>James W</ForeName><Initials>JW</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-0783-3905</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, 5000 Odense, Denmark.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>23</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>7505876</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0027-8424</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000367" MajorTopicYN="N">Age Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002675" MajorTopicYN="N">Child, Preschool</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005191" MajorTopicYN="Y">Family Characteristics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007223" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007231" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant, Newborn</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D038622" MajorTopicYN="N">Internationality</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012111" MajorTopicYN="N">Residence Characteristics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">aging</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">demography</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">global</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">households</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors declare no competing interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>23</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32576696</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">2008764117</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1073/pnas.2008764117</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7368248</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Popul Dev Rev. 2008 Jun 1;34(2):253-281</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21562612</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;20(6):669-677</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32240634</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 May 5;117(18):9696-9698</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32300018</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2020 May;39(5):355-368</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32310621</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Danemark</li><li>Espagne</li></country><region><li>Catalogne</li></region><settlement><li>Barcelone</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université autonome de Barcelone</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Espagne"><region name="Catalogne"><name sortKey="Esteve, Albert" sort="Esteve, Albert" uniqKey="Esteve A" first="Albert" last="Esteve">Albert Esteve</name></region><name sortKey="Boertien, Diederik" sort="Boertien, Diederik" uniqKey="Boertien D" first="Diederik" last="Boertien">Diederik Boertien</name><name sortKey="Esteve, Albert" sort="Esteve, Albert" uniqKey="Esteve A" first="Albert" last="Esteve">Albert Esteve</name><name sortKey="Permanyer, I Aki" sort="Permanyer, I Aki" uniqKey="Permanyer I" first="I Aki" last="Permanyer">I Aki Permanyer</name></country><country name="Danemark"><noRegion><name sortKey="Vaupel, James W" sort="Vaupel, James W" uniqKey="Vaupel J" first="James W" last="Vaupel">James W. Vaupel</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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